Top bitcoin analyst: Trump's victory is not the main story behind the recent bitcoin price surge and why it will rise in four years

On Tuesday, the price of Bitcoin was just below $70,000. On Monday, 11th November, just a few days later, bitcoin's price was now under $90,000. This is the highest value it has ever reached. You may attribute this to Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 United States elections, and that certainly helps. But there is a much larger picture.

It's important to note that Donald Trump was largely responsible for the initial surge and that other factors made it much higher. Donald Trump stated in October that he wanted to make America the “crypto capital of planet”, even accepting crypto donations for his election campaign.

He spoke positively about bitcoin at a conference in June of this year. This is in stark contrast with when he told Newsmax that cryptocurrencies' values were "highly volatile and are based on nothing" just before urging the United States to heavily regulate it in 2021. Elon Musk's vocal support of cryptocurrency and his newfound support for it, combined with his own cabinet's favourable attitude, will ensure that the United States will be in favor of cryptocurrency.

Jesse Myers of OnrampBitcoin - a company that offers bitcoin financial services - suggests, however, that this recent growth may be related to the post-halving – the act of halving daily bitcoin production. As this figure decreases, the incentive to mine also decreases, effectively creating a scarcity of the coin.

This is a countermeasure against inflation trends, and it is also part of the coin’s purpose to serve as a currency. The total number of bitcoins is 21 million, and only 20 million have been found. This means that the post-halving will prevent the world from reaching the collective number faster.

The speculative trading of this coin is partly responsible for the astronomical prices we see. Those who hoard it see its value rise and potential market entrants are discouraged from doing so.

This post-halving occurs every four years. Bitcoin has experienced a sudden surge a few months following the post-halving each time. Trump's victory has led to a surge, but this surge has only been as high as it is due to the ongoing scarcity.

In April 2020 we also saw a sharp increase in the price of the coin. It is likely that the coin will do the same regardless of the winner of the presidential race in the year 2028.