Ubisoft continues to struggle: Star Wars Outlaws isn't doing well, XDefiant's numbers are falling, and we don't even know where The Sands of Time has gone.

Star Wars Outlaws' launch should have been a major success for Ubisoft, a moment that would have marked a turn-around in the company’s fortunes. On the financial front, however, things haven't worked out as expected. Outlaws is generally well-received by critics but sales aren't meeting expectations. Instead of seeing a surge in share price, Ubisoft has seen its share price plummet to its lowest level since 2014.

Ubisoft placed a lot of faith in Star Wars Outlaws. It said that its latest financial report stated that the gameplay previews "not only received praise from players and critics but also demonstrated the cutting-edge capabilities" of their game engines.

Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot stated that "as we progress through the FY25, our efforts will be focused on successfully launching and positioning our promising new releases as long-lasting value generators for Ubisoft" while continuing to transform our organization. "We are confident about the progress of our turnaround and excited about the future."

A Reuters report claims that sales of Star Wars Outlaws have been "sluggish". The report quotes JP Morgan analyst Daniel Kerven, who said that the game has "struggled to meet our expectations despite positive reviews." Kerven has also reduced his sales expectations for Star Wars Outlaws until the end of March 2025, from 7.5 to 5.5 millions units.

I've been in the industry long enough to know that 5.5 million copies are not a failure. But, this is the world we live in today. Cyberpunk 2077 sold 25 million copies by October 2023. Helldivers 2 sold 12 million copies in three months. Black Myth: Wukong sold 10 million units in one week. Star Wars Outlaws may not be a flop but it isn't running with the big boys either.

Star Wars Outlaws doesn't account for all of Ubisoft’s problems. Since early 2021, the company's stock price has fallen from a high EUR85 ($94), to EUR15 ($16), which is where it is today. This is due to years of problems, including cancellations of many in-development games, difficulties to complete high-profile project, and tepid responses to games it has released. Charles-Louis Planade, an analyst at Midcap Partners, cited XDefiant as a recent example of a Ubisoft title failing to find an audience in a Reuters report. Planade stated that interest in the game had not held up after a strong launch fueled by positive word-of-mouth. Twitch's viewership for XDefiant has also dropped dramatically. According to TwitchTracker the number of viewers has fallen from a peak of 203,000 in May, to just 1,440 at present.

2020 was also the subject of allegations of widespread sexual harassment and misconduct at the company. This prompted an investigation, and a promise of a "structural change" to reduce workplace toxicity. This led to the resignation or removal from the company of several executives, including Serge Hascoet and Tommy Francois, Vice President Maxime Beland; the managing director of Ubisoft’s Canadian studios Yannis Mallat; and the global head of Human Resources Cecile Cornet. Notably, Guillemot did not resign, but pointed fingers at other employees who he claimed had "betrayed" the trust he placed in their hands. Guillemot remains the CEO of Ubisoft.

Ubisoft also made bad bets in the gaming industry on broader technologies. Its early NFT foray in Ghost Recon Breakpoint failed (although the company isn't ready to give up the idea of "digital possession" just yet -- ironic, considering that it also tells people to get used to the idea of not buying their games). And earlier this year, it announced a halt on VR game development after disappointing sales of Assassins’ Creed Nexus.

The net result of this is a company in a bad place. Oliver Rodzianko, a Seeking Alpha analyst, said in August that Ubisoft’s valuation "reflects skepticism because of historical underperformance and modest revenues projections." He also believes the company's share price was overvalued between 2017 and 2022.

Star Wars Outlaws' performance isn't likely to help Ubisoft return to its former glory. Assassin's Creed Shadows could be a big hit, but with no other major releases scheduled for the 2025 year after that, it's unlikely that Ubisoft will bounce back anytime soon.